Will Cyclone Alfred Hit New Zealand? Facts & Forecast

If you’ve seen the headlines about Cyclone Alfred churning towards Australia, you might be asking whether it’s headed for New Zealand next. The short answer is no — but understanding why requires a look at the storm’s path, the science of cyclone movement, and a bit of history. This article lays out the latest forecasts, explains why New Zealand is rarely a direct target, and covers what travelers should know.

Maximum wind speed: 150 km/h (93 mph) ·
Peak category: Category 2 (Australian scale) ·
Expected landfall: Early hours of March 8, 2025 ·
Primary affected region: Southern Queensland and northern New South Wales ·
New Zealand direct impact: None expected

Six key numbers, one clear pattern: the entire event is an Australian story.

Does the cyclone hit New Zealand?

What is the current forecast for Cyclone Alfred?

• All official forecast tracks place Alfred’s center over eastern Australia, never over New Zealand waters (Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM)).
• The BOM’s warning zone covers only the Queensland and northern New South Wales coast (ABC News).
• New Zealand’s MetService has issued no cyclone-related watches or warnings for any part of the country (MetService (New Zealand weather service)).

Has Cyclone Alfred made landfall?

• Yes. Alfred crossed Bribie Island at 8 pm AEST on 8 March 2025 and then moved onto the mainland at 9 pm AEST (Australian Bureau of Meteorology).
• It was downgraded to a tropical low earlier that morning at 6 am AEST (Guy Carpenter (reinsurance analyst)).

Which countries will be affected by Cyclone Alfred?

Which parts of Australia are at risk?

• Alfred’s primary threat zone is southern Queensland from Noosa to Coolangatta, and adjacent northern New South Wales (ABC News).
• The BOM warned of destructive winds, storm surge, and coastal inundation for those areas (Australian Bureau of Meteorology).
• Evacuation orders were issued for low-lying suburbs in Queensland (CSIRO (Australia’s national science agency)).

What is the storm’s trajectory?

• Alfred tracked west-southwest after forming in the Coral Sea, then curved toward the southeast Queensland coast (BOM cyclone history).
• It did not recurve eastward toward New Zealand. The steering currents – a high-pressure system over the Tasman Sea – kept it on a westward track (NZ Herald).

The pattern is unambiguous: every official forecast map showed Alfred’s path ending on the Australian mainland, not in the Tasman Sea. For New Zealand, the cyclone was never a direct concern.

Where is Cyclone Alfred most likely to hit?

What is the expected landfall location?

• The BOM forecast landfall between Noosa and Coolangatta, with the actual crossing at Bribie Island (ABC News).
• The storm slowed as it approached, increasing the risk of prolonged heavy rain (CSIRO).

Which suburbs are most at risk of flooding?

• Guy Carpenter reported that Brisbane and the Gold Coast recorded 400 to 600 mm of rain between 4 and 10 March 2025, with some suburbs exceeding 800 mm (Guy Carpenter).
• The BOM warned of 24-hour totals up to 400 mm in the Northern Rivers region of NSW (Australian Bureau of Meteorology).
• Local authorities advised residents to prepare for flash flooding and storm surge (ABC News).

The implication: the worst flooding hit specific coastal suburbs, but the entire southeast Queensland region faced exceptional rainfall that will take weeks to recede.

Has a tropical cyclone ever hit New Zealand?

What is the historical record of cyclones near New Zealand?

• Direct tropical cyclone landfalls in New Zealand are extremely rare because the country lies in the mid-latitudes where sea surface temperatures are too cool to sustain a warm-core system (NIWA (New Zealand’s National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research)).
• The most notable exception is Cyclone Bola (March 1988), which made landfall as a tropical cyclone on the North Island’s east coast. Bola caused extensive flooding and damage, especially in Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay.
• Cyclone Gita (February 2018) struck as a severe ex-tropical cyclone, bringing damaging winds and heavy rain to the South Island and lower North Island.

How often does New Zealand experience tropical cyclone remnants?

• NIWA notes that New Zealand typically sees one or two ex-tropical cyclone events per season, but these are remnants that have lost their tropical characteristics by the time they arrive (NIWA).
• The chance of a direct hit by a system still classified as a tropical cyclone is very low – less than once a decade on average.
• Alfred’s track never brought it close enough to New Zealand to produce even remnant effects, according to the BOM forecast maps.

Are there any travel warnings for New Zealand?

Are there travel advisories due to Cyclone Alfred?

• As of March 2025, no travel warnings have been issued for New Zealand related to Cyclone Alfred (MetService).
• Australian travel warnings apply to the affected regions of southern Queensland and northern NSW, where tourists were advised to avoid non-essential travel during the storm.
• The New Zealand government has not activated any cyclone-related travel alerts for the country.

Should travelers to New Zealand be concerned?

• Travelers already in New Zealand or planning a trip can proceed normally. No airport closures or route disruptions due to Alfred have been reported in New Zealand.
• For those connecting through Australian airports affected by Alfred (Brisbane, Gold Coast), some delays or cancellations may occur. Check airline updates.
• General cyclone season advice for New Zealand: from November to April, travelers should monitor the MetService website for any warnings, though direct impacts remain rare.

The catch: the cyclone risk for New Zealand is minimal, but residual effects like increased swell and rip currents along exposed coasts are always possible. Surfers and swimmers should check local forecasts.

“Alfred was an unusual system because it came so far south and remained organized. The steering pattern kept it well away from New Zealand.”

– NIWA meteorologist (on why NZ was never in the path)

“Residents in low-lying areas should prepare now. This storm will bring dangerous storm surge and flooding.”

– Queensland Premier, urging preparation (per ABC News)

“Cyclone Alfred’s slow movement means more rainfall and potentially greater impacts than a faster-moving storm.”

– CSIRO climate scientist (CSIRO)

For New Zealanders, the main takeaway is that this storm was always an Australian event. The country’s latitude and sea temperatures create a natural buffer against direct tropical cyclone hits, though ex-tropical systems are a recurring seasonal hazard. Travel remains unaffected, and the best advice is to stay informed through official sources like MetService if you’re planning coastal activities over the coming days.